Macro Intelligence

The regime layer that gates every decision downstream.

Today's Regime

Score: 60/100

Late-Cycle Tightening

Liquidity

Loose

Growth

Slowing

Rates

Flat

Risk

Risk Neutral

Flows

Mixed

Liquidity is loose, growth is slowing, the yield curve is flat, risk appetite reads risk neutral, and flows are mixed. Rates are restrictive and growth is cooling — favor quality largecap, defensive sectors, and keep a cash cushion.

As of 29 July 2026 · Auto-refresh at 16:00 IST · Data sources: FRED, Yahoo, NSDL, RBI.

What Changed

Last 24 hours

US Real GDP QoQ+320.00% to 2.10%Moving higher
US CPI YoY-16.87% to 3.46%Moving lower
US Core CPI YoY-9.11% to 2.57%Moving lower
Brent Crude+4.60% to $87.96Oil rising
India VIX-4.40% to 12.01Volatility easing
US Unemployment-2.33% to 4.20%Moving lower
Emerging Markets ETF-1.98% to 62.36Moving lower
Gold+1.39% to $4,092.60Gold rallying

Liquidity & Monetary Policy

How much money is available, and at what price.

LiquidityLoose

Fed Funds Rate

3.63%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

SOFR

3.64%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

US M2 YoY

5.53%

-0.06% (-1.05%)

Signal: Bearish for India

RBI Repo Rate

5.25%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

RBI FX Reserves

$675.16

+$0.00 (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

RBI Systemic Liquidity

₹4,82,130 Cr

+₹0 Cr (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

Growth & Inflation

Whether the economy is expanding, and whether prices are keeping pace.

GrowthSlowing

US CPI YoY

3.46%

-0.70% (-16.87%)

Signal: Bullish for India

US Core CPI YoY

2.57%

-0.26% (-9.11%)

Signal: Bullish for India

US Real GDP QoQ

2.10%

+1.60% (+320.00%)

Signal: Bullish for India

US ISM Manufacturing

53.3

Signal: Neutral

US ISM Services

54.0

Signal: Neutral

US Non-Farm Payrolls

57

Signal: Neutral

US Unemployment

4.20%

-0.10% (-2.33%)

Signal: Bullish for India

India CPI YoY

4.38%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India WPI YoY

9.87%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India IIP YoY

5.10%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India Real GDP YoY

7.80%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India PMI Manufacturing

59.1

+0.0 (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India PMI Services

57.4

+0.0 (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

Rates & Yield Curve

What the bond market is pricing in — and warning about.

RatesFlat

US 2Y Yield

4.31%

-0.02% (-0.46%)

Signal: Bullish for India

US 10Y Yield

4.60%

-0.04% (-0.80%)

Signal: Bullish for India

US 2s10s Spread

29 bps

Signal: Neutral

India 10Y G-Sec

6.79%

+0.00% (+0.00%)

Signal: Neutral

India-US 10Y Spread

219 bps

Signal: Neutral

US HY Credit Spread

281 bps

+2 bps (+0.72%)

Signal: Bearish for India

US IG Credit Spread

81 bps

+1 bps (+1.25%)

Signal: Bearish for India

Risk & Currency

How nervous markets are, and where capital is fleeing to or from.

RiskRisk Neutral

DXY

101.38

-0.00 (-0.00%)

Signal: Bullish for India

USD/INR

₹95.65

-₹0.13 (-0.13%)

Signal: Bullish for India

EUR/USD

1.1391

+0.0021 (+0.19%)

Signal: Bullish for India

USD/CNY

6.7549

-0.0108 (-0.16%)

Signal: Bullish for India

USD/JPY

163.68

-0.09 (-0.05%)

Signal: Neutral

US VIX

18.25

+0.04 (+0.22%)

Signal: Bearish for India

India VIX

12.01

-0.55 (-4.40%)

Signal: Bullish for India

Gold

$4,092.60

+$56.30 (+1.39%)

Signal: Neutral

Silver

$57.79

+$0.49 (+0.86%)

Signal: Neutral

Brent Crude

$87.96

+$3.87 (+4.60%)

Signal: Bearish for India

Gold/Oil Ratio

46.53

Signal: Neutral

Flows & Positioning

Who's actually buying — and what everyone else is watching trade.

FlowsMixed

Nifty 50

24,250.20

+264.85 (+1.10%)

Signal: Bullish for India

Nifty Midcap 150

23,123.70

+192.25 (+0.84%)

Signal: Bullish for India

Nifty Smallcap 250

17,978.05

+236.60 (+1.33%)

Signal: Bullish for India

Nifty Bank

57,205.90

+450.30 (+0.79%)

Signal: Bullish for India

S&P 500

7,428.78

+15.60 (+0.21%)

Signal: Bullish for India

NASDAQ

24,876.91

-55.17 (-0.22%)

Signal: Bearish for India

Emerging Markets ETF

62.36

-1.26 (-1.98%)

Signal: Bearish for India

FII Cash Flow

Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.

Daily foreign flows into Indian equities.

DII Cash Flow

Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.

Domestic institutional flows.

Data as of 29 July 2026, refreshed daily after market close (16:00 IST). Sources: FRED, Yahoo Finance, RBI, NSDL.

Next 14 Days

DateEventImportance
1 AugPMI ReleaseIndia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July, est. release date)
1 AugPMI ReleaseUS ISM Manufacturing PMI (July, est. release date)
3 AugRBI MPCRBI MPC meeting begins
5 AugRBI MPCRBI MPC rate decision
5 AugPMI ReleaseIndia S&P Global Services PMI (July, est. release date)
7 AugUS NFPUS Non-Farm Payrolls (July, first Friday)
12 AugUS CPIUS CPI (July 2026) — confirmed BLS release date
12 AugIndia CPIIndia CPI (July, est. release date)
31 AugIndia GDPIndia Q1 FY27 GDP (Apr-Jun 2026) — confirmed PIB release date
15 SeptFed FOMCFOMC meeting begins (decision Sep 16, includes Summary of Economic Projections)

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Connecting the Dots

The five domains transmit into each other, and then into sectors. Liquidity sets the price of money — when the Fed or RBI tightens, growth cools with a lag, which shows up in inflation and PMI prints. The bond market prices all of this in advance: a flattening or inverting curve is the rates domain warning that liquidity has gone too tight for growth to absorb. Risk and currency react to both — a stronger dollar (DXY) drains liquidity from emerging markets, pressures the rupee, and raises volatility, which is exactly when FIIs pull back and DIIs have to absorb the selling. That last leg — flows — is where it becomes visible in sectors: financials lead when liquidity is loose and the curve is steep, defensives lead when the curve is inverted and risk is off. Reading the five domains together, in this order, is how sector rotation gets anticipated instead of chased.

Learn how this connects to sector rotation →